[Home ] [Archive]    
:: Volume 20, Issue 4 (1-2018) ::
Hakim Health Sys Res 2018, 20(4): 240-250 Back to browse issues page
عوامل مؤثر بر مخارج بهداشتی ایران و پیش‌بینی بر اساس مدل سیستم‌های پویا
Siamak Seyedzadeh Abras , Majid Delavari * , Masoud Babakhani
, mjd_delavari@yahoo.com
Abstract:   (1658 Views)
The Factors Affecting on Iran’s Health Expenditure and Forecasting based on Dynamic Systems Model

Siamak Seyedzadeh Abras (MSc)1, Majid Delavari (PhD)2*, Masoud Babakhani (PhD)3

1Department of Industrial Engineering, Karaj Branch, Islamic Azad University, Karaj, Iran
2Assistante Professor, Department of Industrial Engineering, Karaj Branch,Islamic Azad University, Karaj, Iran
3Assistante Professor, Department of Industrial Engineering, Iran Science and Technology University, Tehran, Iran
Abstract

Introduction: The purpose of this paper was to analyze the relationship between economic variables (gross domestic product (GDP), the budget deficit, and health R and D spending, in the health sector) and noneconomic (carbon dioxide and the population over 65 years) on Iran’s health expenditures using 2 groups of macro economy and household budget for the period 1993 - 2013 and year- ahead forecasting.

Methods: For this purpose, ordinary least squares (OLS) method and Johanson cointegration test with Eviews 9 software and for forecasting, dynamic system model and Vensim 6.0 software has been used. The references of data, statistical center of Iran, central bank of Iran, world development indicators (WDI), and
world health organization (WHO) has until 2015.

Results: The results of the macro model reveal no presence of a short run causal relationship between variables and government expenditure on health, while in the long run, GDP, Carbon dioxide, and budget deficit was found to be significantly causally related to health expenditure. The results of the second model in which data used household, meaningful relationship between carbon dioxide, and total household spending on household health expenditure in the short term is confirmed.

Conclusions: Despite the continuous increase spending on government expenditure on health during the period examined, for various structural reasons, short-term effects on the health sector had not been enough to reduce applicants’ (households) health care expenses; however, it also increased the paid out of patient’s pocket. It is expected in the years ahead for the share of government health expenditure to be higher than the share of the private sector.

Keywords: Health Expenditure; Econometric; Dynamic System
 
Please cite this article as follows:
Seyedzadeh S, Delavari M, Babakhani M. The Factors Affecting on Iran’s Health Expenditure and Forecasting based on Dynamic Systems Model. Hakim Health Sys Res 2018; 20(4): 240- 250.
Full-Text [PDF 571 kb]   (216 Downloads)    
Type of Study: Original | Subject: General
Received: 2018/03/14 | Accepted: 2018/03/14 | Published: 2018/03/14
Send email to the article author

Add your comments about this article
Your username or Email:

CAPTCHA code


XML   Persian Abstract   Print


Download citation:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:

Siamak Seyedzadeh Abras, Majid Delavari, Masoud Babakhani. عوامل مؤثر بر مخارج بهداشتی ایران و پیش‌بینی بر اساس مدل سیستم‌های پویا. Hakim Health Sys Res . 2018; 20 (4) :240-250
URL: http://hakim.hbi.ir/article-1-1804-en.html


Volume 20, Issue 4 (1-2018) Back to browse issues page
فصلنامه پژوهش حکیم Hakim Research Journal
Persian site map - English site map - Created in 0.17 seconds with 30 queries by YEKTAWEB 3742